Cyber Retaliation Risks Rise After US-Venezuela Operation

Cybersecurity and national security officials are warning that the U.S. operation in Venezuela has raised the threat level for critical infrastructure, with the nation’s cyber defense agency calling for “heightened vigilance across all sectors.”

CISA Acting Director for Cybersecurity Madhu Gottumukkala said in a statement to Information Security Media Group the nation’s critical infrastructure “faces persistent and increasingly sophisticated cyber risks from China, Russia and other hostile nation-state actors” following the U.S. raid in Caracas to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

U.S. officials have not publicly detailed the tactics used, but analysts say the U.S. may have blended cyber and kinetic capabilities to knock out a substantial portion of the nation’s power grid as forces descended on Caracas in the middle of the night (see: Trump, the US and a Blackout: What Cut Off Venezuela’s Grid?).

In the wake of the operation, experts say critical infrastructure owners and operators should prepare for a period of elevated cyber risk, similar to what followed U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer when attempted cyber activity against Western infrastructure intensified in the weeks that followed. Venezuela lacks significant cyber capability but analysts said that its ties to China and Russia could align with increased probing of energy, water and communications systems that are already under sustained pressure.

“We urge all organizations to treat this moment with the seriousness it demands and take proactive steps now to safeguard their systems,” Gottumukkala said.

Widespread outages across U.S. power grids, water systems and transportation networks never materialized following the operation in Iran over the summer, though research indicated there was a surge in hacktivism activity targeting those sectors. U.S. cyber forces also likely played a significant role in the Iran mission, with support from Cyber Command and other combat commands to deploy deception and strategic communications tactics (see: How US Cyber Ops May Have Assisted the Midnight Hammer Strike).

A former senior Pentagon cybersecurity official said the United States is “entering a phase where cyber retaliation could become more frequent and more disruptive” following the Venezuela raid, with China and Russia-linked threat actors potentially using the geopolitical moment to intensify pressure on critical infrastructure.

“We’ve seen target-rich, resource-poor organizations hit hardest in these exact moments,” the former official said, pointing to prior periods of heightened tension when U.S. water utilities and other essential services faced attempted intrusions and disruptive activity. “Everyone needs to be on high alert.”

Federal agencies warned after the Iran strikes that retaliation in cyberspace often shows up first as noisy but low-cost disruption, including denial-of-service campaigns, opportunistic ransomware activity and broad vulnerability scanning across internet-facing systems. A CISA official said the agency has been working to counter these threats well before the Venezuela operation.

It remains unclear how the U.S. disrupted Venezuela’s power grid during the Saturday night raid, or whether nation-states can reliably carry out cyber-enabled grid attacks without risking prolonged outages. Kurt Gaudette, senior vice president of intelligence and services at Dragos, said such operations are technically possible but operationally complex.

“If disabling power is a requirement, something like a graphite bomb is going to be more reliable and more straightforward for a military,” Gaudette said. The United States has used graphite bombs, also known as “blackout bombs,” in multiple armed confrontations over the past three decades. The munition releases a cloud of chemically treated carbon filaments that short out electrical transformers and power lines.

Cyber operations have successfully disrupted power in limited cases but, they require extensive preparation, Gaudette said. Disruptions to the Ukrainian electrical grid by Russian nation-state hackers in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016 required advanced access months before for outages lasting between one and three hours.

“It takes a lot of planning, prior intrusion and reconnaissance,” he added. “All of which come at risk of discovery.”